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rasoulallahbinbadisassalacerhso  wefaqdev iktab
السبت, 04 آذار/مارس 2023 06:58

Munich Security Conference Loses Value as a Venue for Dialogue Among Foes

كتبه  By Barbara Slavin
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As the world increasingly re-divides into hostile blocs, the need for dialogue is increasing but the number of places for such conversations is shrinking.

This year, there were no Russian or Iranian officials at the Davos World Economic Forum in Switzerland in January, and none were invited to the venerable Munich Security Conference in Germany, which takes place this weekend. While understandable given egregious actions by both governments, it is also unfortunate.

The Munich conference, held since 1963 at an upscale hotel in Bavaria, bills itself as “a unique platform for high-level debates on the greatest foreign and security policy challenges of our time.” But the absence of diplomats from countries representing one side of those challenges is unlikely to help resolve them.

The war in Ukraine will obviously be the focal point in Munich as Russia’s grisly aggression approaches its first anniversary. Western nations can take pride in their surprisingly robust response to the invasion; Ukrainians can be even prouder of their extraordinary bravery and ability to absorb advanced Western military technology. But Ukraine’s chances of expelling Russia from every acre of occupied territory remain uncertain at best, while the price the war is exacting on combatants and the global economy is huge and growing.

There is no guarantee, of course, that inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin or Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Munich would help bring about a cease-fire, let alone a more permanent settlement. Christoph Heusgen, the chairman of the Munich conference, was quoted recently as saying that “We don’t want the Munich Security Conference to serve as a podium for Russian propaganda.” But not having Russians there does not advance the cause of peace, either. Instead, it confirms Putin’s view that Russia must continue to pursue this murderous conflict because the “West” is totally against him.

A similar dynamic may be unfolding regarding Iran diplomacy.

In the past year, the Islamic Republic has become a triple pariah for its brutal repression of peaceful protests, its dangerously advancing nuclear program, and its provision of drones and other military equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine. Talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have been moribund since September 2022, when the Iranians left a proposal laboriously negotiated with Europe, the US, Russia and China on the table. 

For months now, the Biden administration has been saying that its priority is supporting Iranian aspirations for more freedom and counteracting Iranian drone exports to Russia, not the nuclear issue. But this is not a subject that, like fine wine, will improve over time without doing anything. According to Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran already possesses enough fissile material, enriched to nearly weapons-grade, to make several nuclear bombs. At the same time, Iranians are under growing economic strain in part due to the continuation of US-led sanctions, and a dozen Western-Iranian dual nationals continue to languish in Iranian prisons as Iran demands an unfreezing of some of its hard currency assets in foreign banks in return for their freedom.

In the past, Munich has been a venue for sideline talks on issues like these by the US and other Western officials with Iran. This time, however, the organizers have invited prominent Iranian dissidents from the diaspora to speak. As much as many in the West—and in Iran itself—would love to see the Islamic Republic replaced by something better, there is no sign that regime change is imminent. The appearance on a grand international stage of Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of the ousted late Shah, may make Western governments feel more virtuous and please diaspora constituents. But it is likely to further convince Iranian officials that they face an existential threat from the West and that the only viable course for them to survive is to double down on a military alliance with Russia and an economic partnership with China.

The absence of “pariah” state representatives at Munich—North Koreans will not be there either—also deprives the Western press of a chance to interview and challenge them about their policies. For officials accustomed to self-censorship and pandering from their own media, encounters with Western journalists can have a certain therapeutic value that goes beyond hashtag wars and propaganda duels on social media. (Listen to NPR’s recent interview with Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian for a good example.) It is useful for Western journalists, too, to hear the point of view of officials from countries that are hard to obtain visas to visit. They also have grievances that are often discounted too cavalierly.

With Davos and Munich gone this year as venues for these kinds of encounters, that leaves the annual summit of the UN General Assembly in September in New York as one of the dwindling opportunities for foes to interact. There are too many crises that need urgent attention to wait for such events, however. More contacts are needed now.

Link : https://www.stimson.org/2023/munich-security-conference-loses-value-as-a-venue-for-dialogue-among-foes/?utm_source=Stimson+Center&utm_campaign=eea99a0c54-RA%2FComms%2FThreats+to+UN+Peacekeepers%2FWPS+NATO&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-eea99a0c54-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

قراءة 418 مرات آخر تعديل على الجمعة, 17 آذار/مارس 2023 08:04

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