Not only is forced displacement a war crime, but Arab monarchies, particularly Jordan, could collapse from the pressure.
President Trump told reporters on Air Force One this weekend that he wants Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab countries to take refugees from Gaza in order to “just clean out that whole thing.” Any forced repatriation of Palestinians would constitute the war crime of ethnic cleansing, although international law has not historically governed Israel or the United States’ treatment of Palestinians.
Yet if Trump were to greenlight such a plan, the result would be extreme destabilization of neighboring states, which would contradict Trump’s stated goal of bringing peace to the Middle East.
As I wrote in a recent brief for the Quincy Institute, Jordan in particular would face a level of upheaval that could bring down King Abdullah II and the Hashemite monarchy that has long worked with the U.S. and Israel. If Trump were to facilitate the displacement of Palestinians into Jordan, Washington could lose an ally and gain an enemy, or at best a government with no interest in working with Tel Aviv or Washington.
Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. A key aspect of the treaty was that Israel would not displace Palestinians into Jordan. When I visited Jordan last fall, many former officials expressed concern that they no longer had a partner in the Israeli government and that Netanyahu was preparing to violate the treaty. If Israel were to do so by forcing Palestinians across the border, King Abdullah of Jordan would either have to respond — which would result in the loss of U.S. assistance that helps Abdullah maintain his throne — or allow the war crime to proceed, which could result in his overthrow.
The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, which won a plurality of seats in September’s parliamentary election, would be the organization best placed to take control. Although the Brotherhood historically acted as a “loyal opposition” to the Hashemite kings, in recent years it has faced intensified repression and has responded by adopting more aggressive positions, including on the question of Palestine.
Regardless of whether the Brotherhood or another movement took control of Jordan in the aftermath of the Hashemites’ ouster, the resulting government would be extremely pro-Palestine, reflecting the sentiments of Jordanians, over half of whom are originally Palestinian. The depth of support for Palestine is reflected in the mass boycott of American and European products and businesses, as well as in recent attacks by Jordanians on the Israeli border and embassy.
