{"id":10962,"date":"2026-02-15T07:09:38","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T07:09:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=10962"},"modified":"2026-02-15T07:09:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T07:09:38","slug":"this-war-isnt-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=10962","title":{"rendered":"This War Isn\u2019t Over"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

ast night President Donald Trump announced a \u201cComplete and Total CEASEFIRE\u201d between Israel and Iran. Trump seemed exuberant. \u201cThis is the end of the war,\u201d he\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0Axios\u2019s Barak Ravid. \u201cIt is a great and wonderful thing for Israel and the world.\u201d Asked how long the ceasefire would hold, Trump\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0NBC News, \u201cI think the ceasefire is unlimited. It\u2019s going to go forever.\u201d<\/p>\n

Forever is a long time, but the ceasefire, after a rough start, does seem to be taking hold as of 7 am New York time.<\/p>\n

Also Monday, Washington and Tehran assured one another that their recent tit-for-tat exchange wouldn\u2019t proceed to a second round. The U.S. had attacked three Iranian nuclear sites Saturday night, and Iran retaliated Monday with ballistic missile strikes targeting a U.S. military installation in Qatar. No Americans were harmed, and Trump\u00a0seemed<\/a>\u00a0content to leave it there.<\/p>\n

All this amounts to a welcome turn of events. But make no mistake: This war isn\u2019t over.<\/p>\n

I predicted in May that the U.S. would attack Iran, rather than strike a deal that limits its enrichment of uranium for nuclear fuel. While Trump seemed to genuinely want such a deal, I reasoned, Israel would go to great lengths to sabotage diplomacy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I\u2019m imagining is that Israel conducts strikes and then we get dragged into war in support of them,\u201d I said on an\u00a0episode<\/a>\u00a0of TAC Right Now. \u201cThey [Israel] can\u2019t take out these underground nuclear reactors on their own; they need bunker busters for that, 30,000-pound bunker-busters that require B-2 Spirit stealth bombers.\u201d The U.S., and not Israel, possesses those bunker-busters and B-2 Spirits, and I expected the U.S. to use them on Israel\u2019s behalf.<\/p>\n

This weekend, that prediction came to pass. Though America\u2019s intervention now seems like a one-off, and though Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, the same dynamics that last month made me so pessimistic are still in play.<\/p>\n

One reason a deal with Iran seems unworkable\u2014and conflict unavoidable\u2014is that the Trump administration has hardened its nuclear demands, insisting on a total ban, rather than limits, on Iran\u2019s domestic enrichment of uranium. That\u2019s a non-starter for Tehran, which says that it has a sovereign right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.<\/p>\n

A failure to reach a nuclear deal with Iran needn\u2019t be a\u00a0casus belli<\/em>, but Trump has said, repeatedly, that the alternative to an agreement is war. Since America\u2019s act of war this weekend didn\u2019t actually \u201cobliterate\u201d Iran\u2019s nuclear program, as claimed, and since a deal doesn\u2019t seem forthcoming, we can hardly rest assured that peace will last.<\/p>\n

Another key dynamic is even more important: Israel sees Tehran as the final boss in its quest for regional hegemony, and its war effort the past couple weeks failed to defang Iran\u2019s military entirely or decapitate its civilian leadership. Israel exerts profound influence in the U.S., including over the Trump administration, and it will look for opportunities to push Washington into war to finish off the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n

For now, Israel seems content to take a breather, if only to restock air-defense interceptors that can shoot down Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles. But Israel\u2019s deep hostility to Iran remains.<\/p>\n

Consider how Israel\u2019s most prominent supporters in America reacted last night to Trump\u2019s announcement. \u201cNo such things as endless ceasefires,\u201d\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. \u201cOnly a permanent peace with Iran when the Islamic Republic is no more.\u201d The Fox News host Mark Levin\u00a0added<\/a>\u00a0more color: \u201cI hate this word \u2018ceasefire\u2019… Adolf Hitler wasn\u2019t thrown a lifeline.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s one more reason, in addition to these preexisting dynamics, to expect a hot war to break out again: Tehran simply cannot trust the U.S. (or Israel) after events the past two weeks. Days before scheduled talks between Washington and Tehran, Trump seems to have greenlighted the surprise Israeli attack on Iran that kicked off the war earlier this month. Some reports even said that U.S. diplomacy with Iran had been a ruse, a deception campaign crafted to lull Tehran into a false sense of security.<\/p>\n

Link :\u00a0https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/this-war-isnt-over\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ast night President Donald Trump announced a \u201cComplete and Total CEASEFIRE\u201d between Israel and Iran. Trump seemed exuberant. \u201cThis is the end of the war,\u201d he\u00a0told\u00a0Axios\u2019s Barak Ravid. \u201cIt is a great and wonderful thing for Israel and the world.\u201d Asked how long the ceasefire would hold, Trump\u00a0told\u00a0NBC News, \u201cI think the ceasefire is unlimited. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-policy"],"yoast_head":"\nThis War Isn\u2019t Over - \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642\u0629<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=10962\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This War Isn\u2019t Over\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ast night President Donald Trump announced a \u201cComplete and Total CEASEFIRE\u201d between Israel and Iran. 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