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It is difficult to overstate the extent of\u00a0US<\/a>\u00a0President\u00a0Donald Trump<\/a>‘s\u00a0Iran<\/a>\u00a0war misadventure.<\/p>\n Despite Trump’s\u00a0claims<\/a>\u00a0to the contrary, his decision to go to\u00a0war with Iran<\/a>\u00a0has produced an unmitigated disaster.<\/p>\n In one fell swoop, Trump has undermined his own political brand,\u00a0hardened<\/a>\u00a0Iranian resolve, fractured his Maga (Make America Great Again) base, and driven the global economy towards crisis.<\/p>\n Perhaps the most stunning revelation of the past few weeks is that Trump, who has long championed himself as a\u00a0strong leader<\/a>\u00a0with an “America first<\/a>” political vision, is allowing a small foreign country,\u00a0Israel<\/a>, to direct critical aspects of American foreign policy.<\/p>\n Suggestions of Israel’s oversized\u00a0influence<\/a>\u00a0on US politics have previously been dismissed by Republicans as antisemitic\u00a0conspiracy<\/a>\u00a0theories. But the unfolding of the Iran war has made Israeli influence clearer and harder to dismiss.<\/p>\n On the war’s third day, US Secretary of State\u00a0Marco Rubio<\/a>\u00a0let the cat out of the proverbial bag when he\u00a0confirmed<\/a>\u00a0what analysts had already\u00a0suspected<\/a>\u00a0– that Israel pushed America into battle.<\/p>\n The decision to enter into a major offensive war without the approval of the United Nations Security Council or the US Congress was already fraught with problems. But the fact that Trump was effectively forced into the decision by a nation geographically smaller than all but three of America’s 50 states is nothing short of extraordinary.<\/p>\n For Netanyahu, the Iran war was a career-long dream, a war of wars that could propel Israel into regional hegemon status. He has spent\u00a0decades<\/a>\u00a0lobbying US leaders to go to war with Iran on Israel’s behalf.<\/p>\n Trump was the first president to fall for a trick that Netanyahu had\u00a0tried<\/a>\u00a0before: Netanyahu reportedly threatened to attack Iran with or without US involvement, explaining that US assets in the region would come under fire in Iran’s retaliation.<\/p>\n Israel not only drove the decision to go to war in the first place, but appears to be actively dictating war policy.<\/p>\n On 18 March, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars natural gas field. The attack precipitated a predictable Iranian\u00a0response<\/a>\u00a0on critical Gulf energy infrastructure. The Israeli attack and Iran’s retaliation have caused the global energy market to spiral into\u00a0crisis<\/a>.<\/p>\n Oil prices, which had already risen\u00a040 percent<\/a>\u00a0since the start of the war, have risen\u00a0further\u00a0<\/a>still since the Israeli attack on South Pars.<\/p>\n Unsurprisingly, Trump’s decision to follow Netanyahu’s lead has effectively\u00a0divided<\/a>\u00a0his Maga base.<\/p>\n Prominent Maga personalities – including Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh, Nick Fuentes, and others – have publicly lambasted Trump’s decision to go to war, something that could\u00a0jeopardise<\/a>\u00a0the midterm elections for the Republicans.<\/p>\n Overall, around\u00a080 percent<\/a>\u00a0of Republicans support the war. That is, on the face of it, a respectable support figure. But it is meaningfully less than past major wars launched by Republican presidents. For example, the 1991 Gulf War, launched by Republican George H W Bush, had\u00a089 percent<\/a>\u00a0of Republican support; the 2001 invasion of\u00a0Afghanistan,<\/a>\u00a0initiated by George W Bush, garnered\u00a096 percent<\/a>\u00a0of Republican backing; and the 2003 invasion of\u00a0Iraq<\/a>, also ordered by George W Bush, achieved\u00a093 percent<\/a>\u00a0of Republican support.<\/p>\n In addition to the self-induced Maga crisis that the war decision has produced, Trump is also dealing with image problems that could affect his legacy.<\/p>\n Throughout the war period, Trump and his administration have arguably appeared disorganised, unprepared, and incompetent, offering up\u00a0at least 10<\/a>\u00a0different, often\u00a0competing<\/a>, justifications for the war.<\/p>\n Last week, Trump\u00a0said<\/a>, “maybe we shouldn’t even be [in Iran] at all”, drawing\u00a0backlash<\/a>\u00a0from critics already angry over the administration’s apparent lack of an intelligible rationale for war.<\/p>\n On 14 March, after the US hit Iran’s oil-rich Kharg Island, Trump again drew\u00a0outrage<\/a>\u00a0when he\u00a0suggested<\/a>\u00a0that the US might hit the island again “just for fun”.<\/p>\n But messaging has not been the only cause of Trump’s image problem. Since the start of the war, the US president has appeared unprepared, oblivious to the war’s potential consequences, and unaware of what was happening on the ground.<\/p>\n Trump expressed surprise that a war on Iran would precipitate Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. On 16 March, he exclaimed: “Nobody expected that. We were shocked [at the attacks on Gulf energy sites].” Trump went on to say that not even the “greatest experts” were able to foresee “that [Iran was] going to hit” the Gulf countries.<\/p>\n But, in the lead-up to war, numerous\u00a0experts<\/a>\u00a0laid out, in precise\u00a0detail<\/a>, exactly this\u00a0risk<\/a>, and Gulf countries themselves\u00a0understood<\/a>\u00a0it well.<\/p>\n Trump’s lack of understanding of something so basic has added to\u00a0the perception<\/a>\u00a0that he is\u00a0incompetent<\/a>.<\/p>\n Compounding Trump’s image problem is the fact that he has long championed himself as a president of peace, often criticising past American presidents for starting unnecessary wars.<\/p>\n For example, when campaigning for president in 2015 and 2016, Trump\u00a0called<\/a>\u00a0the US war on Iraq a “big, fat mistake”, and repeatedly\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0that he had always been opposed to it.<\/p>\nMaga fractures<\/h3>\n
‘Anti-war candidate’<\/h3>\n