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Donald Trump backed away from his\u00a0apocalyptic threat<\/a>\u00a0on Tuesday, declaring his agreement to a ceasefire with Iran instead of following through with committing the greatest act of genocide in history.<\/p>\n We can all be glad he made that decision. But he didn\u2019t leave us in a stable place from which we can expect rapid progress and de-escalation. Instead, we have a ceasefire that is incredibly fragile, and many ways it can be blown up, literally and figuratively.<\/p>\n Still, there is some reason for hope, if we look hard enough.<\/p>\n As always when dealing with Trump, much is unclear, and messages have been contradictory.<\/p>\n The most positive, and quite surprising, signal Trump sent in his announcement of the ceasefire was\u00a0his statement<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cWe received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.\u201d<\/p>\n But Trump soon mitigated that by directly contradicting some of the ten points in the Iranian proposal and by\u00a0stating the next morning<\/a>\u00a0that, \u201cMany of the 15 points have already been been (sic) agreed to,\u201d referencing his own plan, which Iran had already rejected as maximalist and unacceptable.<\/p>\n Trump also said that the ceasefire meant the Strait of Hormuz would be\u00a0completely open<\/a>\u00a0to the free flow of sea traffic. Iran differs, with its foreign minister Abbas Araghchi\u00a0stating that<\/a>, \u201cFor a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran\u2019s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s a pretty big gap that can be expected to quickly lead to anger and hostilities.<\/p>\n And then there\u2019s Lebanon.<\/p>\n In announcing the ceasefire, Pakistan\u2019s Prime Minister\u00a0Shehbaz Sherif said<\/a>\u00a0that the truce extends \u201ceverywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n Yet Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu\u00a0immediately declared<\/a>\u00a0that the ceasefire did not include Lebanon. To underscore his message,\u00a0Israel embarked on a wave of massacres in Lebanon<\/a>, bombing without even the pretense of targeting \u201cterrorists,\u201d as it has in the past.<\/p>\n At this writing,\u00a0Lebanon reports<\/a>\u00a0at least 254 dead and over 1,165 wounded in Israeli attacks, the most intense since the war started. Those figures will surely rise as attacks are ongoing.<\/p>\n Western leaders have\u00a0called for the ceasefire to be implemented in Lebanon<\/a>, albeit in relatively weak language. But those Western leaders did not include Trump, who called Israel\u2019s invasion of Lebanon a \u201cskirmish\u201d and\u00a0flatly stated<\/a>\u00a0that this was not included in the ceasefire deal.<\/p>\n None of this bodes well for this ceasefire. The hope lies in Trump\u2019s own inconsistency. The irregular and unpredictable connection between what he says and what he does can, on occasion, lead to a relatively positive outcome, as it did when he backed off from his threat on Tuesday. But more often it leads to more rash, reckless, and deadly decisions.<\/p>\n Reportedly<\/a>, these are the ten points in Iran\u2019s proposal:<\/p>\n 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression;<\/p>\n 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz;<\/p>\n 3. Acceptance of Iran\u2019s nuclear enrichment rights;<\/p>\n 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions;<\/p>\n 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions;<\/p>\n 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran;<\/p>\n 7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran;<\/p>\n 8. Payment of damages to Iran for loss in the war;<\/p>\n 9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region;<\/p>\n 10. Cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.<\/p>\n It should be stressed that Trump\u2019s acknowledgment of these points as a basis for talks doesn\u2019t mean he accepts any of them, in part or whole. Still, it is remarkable that a document that includes recognition of Iran\u2019s right to enrich uranium and the withdrawal of all U.S. combat forces from the region was accepted as a basis for talks by the U.S. president.<\/p>\n In fact, that acceptance is an admission by Trump that he is defeated, whether he acknowledges it or not. Before the war, there was no serious discussion of removing American troops and, more pointedly, Iran had already signaled willingness to agree to highly intrusive nuclear inspections and to refrain from stockpiling any enriched uranium at all.<\/p>\n Now, Trump is negotiating Iran\u2019s right to enrich uranium and scrambling to contain the loss in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n Iran has been forced out of major Asian and European oil markets by years of U.S. and UN sanctions.\u00a0Control of the Strait<\/a>\u00a0will give it the leverage it didn\u2019t have before to regain access to those markets and to have sanctions removed. Whether\u00a0a fee structure for passage<\/a>\u00a0is part of the new reality or not, Iran now has a level of control over the Strait it didn\u2019t have before.<\/p>\n But Iran needs to be mindful about overplaying its hand. It should not be lost on Iran that, despite the fact that the U.S. and Israel launched an illegal sneak attack, most governments around the world still directed their ire at Iran while the fighting raged. Even relatively friendly countries like China and Russia (which both\u00a0vetoed a resolution<\/a>\u00a0at the UN Security Council, they judged as biased against Iran) did little to support Iran.<\/p>\n Of course, that was due in great measure to the tactics Iran was forced to use in attacking Gulf countries and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Iran needs to be mindful that the world is not sympathetic to the tactics it used in this war.<\/p>\n So overreach is a real danger. If Iran really wants to pursue the departure of American forces from the region, it would have a tough time selling that if Gulf states object. Iran could achieve that goal through a regional defense and peace agreement, but that would take many years to achieve. Trying to do it now would fail and could lead to a breakdown in talks on the war.<\/p>\n Similarly, some have interpreted Sherif\u2019s statement that the ceasefire applies \u201ceverywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere,\u201d to include Gaza as well. But there has been no specific mention of Gaza or Palestine in subsequent comments from any side, including Iran. Most likely, even Iran has concluded that matters are sufficiently complicated with Lebanon and the Red Sea area that they don\u2019t want to bring Gaza in at this stage. Again, that probably means pushing that issue down the road, but they are surely aware that insisting on the ceasefire, including Gaza and even the West Bank, would almost certainly lead to the collapse of the ceasefire.<\/p>\n As so often is the case, the Palestinians are forced to endure and wait.<\/p>\n Democratic Congress member Yassamin Ansari of Arizona\u00a0wisely wrote on X<\/a>: \u201cI do not appreciate anyone \u2013 Democrat or Republican \u2013 taking this moment to make TACO jokes to say Trump \u2018chickened out.\u2019 The president was threatening genocide against 90 million Iranians. I\u2019m grateful there\u2019s a ceasefire & scores of innocent people didn\u2019t die tonight.\u201d<\/p>\n Ansari nailed the biggest danger to the ceasefire. Circumstances make it very fragile, but it is Trump\u2019s childlike ego that makes it unstable.<\/p>\n Trump calls<\/a>\u00a0this ceasefire a \u201ctotal and complete victory,\u201d and it\u2019s easy to see how far that is from the truth. In fact, he wasn\u2019t just defeated, he was humiliated. This is a major strategic loss for the United States.<\/p>\n J Street Policy Officer and former senior official in both the Defense and State Departments Ilan Goldenberg did a good job\u00a0summing up<\/a>\u00a0the \u201ctotal strategic disaster.\u201d<\/p>\n He\u2019s got it right. This was a humiliation for Trump, a man who is terrified of being humiliated beyond all else. Zeteo political correspondent\u00a0Asawin Suebsaeng reported<\/a>\u00a0that he was told directly by a senior administration official that they were going to try to filter the reactions Trump was hearing to the capitulation to Iran lest he reverse course.<\/p>\n Some of what Goldenberg lists might be mitigated in talks over the next two weeks, but it is far more likely that between Trump\u2019s humiliation and the already apparent contradictions between what each side is saying they agreed to, the talks won\u2019t ever get that far.<\/p>\n And, then, of course, there\u2019s Israel.<\/p>\n Regardless of what he says publicly, few world leaders read the realities like Netanyahu. He knows very well that this was a resounding defeat. And the Israeli people\u00a0know it too<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Islamic Republic remains intact and has emerged battered but actually in a stronger political and diplomatic position.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s leverage with the Strait of Hormuz makes it a regional power much more than it has ever been. As angry as most of the Gulf Arab states are with Iran, they now know they will have to work out an accommodation between them. Not only has the United States shown that, regardless of how much money they pump into the American economy, the U.S. government will not protect them as it will protect Israel. And, even if it tried to do so, Iran\u2019s capabilities would overcome it.<\/p>\n Israel, for all its military might and all its ability to cause terrible destruction, is unable to impose its will on Iran. Indeed, despite a genocide that ranks as one of the great crimes in living memory, Israel has proven unable to eliminate even so poorly armed a force as Hamas and continues to suffer from its inability to contain Hezbollah.<\/p>\n Worse, as much as the genocide downgraded Israel\u2019s status in the United States and the rest of the world, this war has utterly destroyed Israel\u2019s place in American politics. Pro-Israel groups may still be able to gather donors to influence elected officials, but this was never their most powerful tool. Israel\u2019s image as an ally, a western-style state, and as an American \u201coutpost\u201d in the Middle East was the key.<\/p>\n That is gone now. Israel is recognized by more Americans than ever as the apartheid state that it is. It is blamed for the genocide it carried out with American support. And now, it is seen as having dragged the U.S. into a war that has badly damaged American interests.<\/p>\n Netanyahu reacted as he typically does: by launching a ferocious assault on civilians, this time in Lebanon. Opposition leader Yair Lapid\u00a0blasted Netanyahu<\/a>\u00a0when the ceasefire was announced: \u201cThere has never been such a political disaster in all of our history. Israel wasn\u2019t even at the table when decisions were made concerning the core of our national security\u2026 Netanyahu failed politically, failed strategically, and didn\u2019t meet a single one of the goals that he himself set. It will take us years to repair the political and strategic damage that Netanyahu wrought due to arrogance, negligence, and a lack of strategic planning.\u201d<\/p>\nWhat are the terms of this ceasefire?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/div>\nWhat is Iran\u2019s 10-Point Proposal?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
The dangers to the ceasefire<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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<\/figure>\nNetanyahu\u2019s defeat is even greater than Trump\u2019s<\/strong><\/h2>\n