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America\u2019s newest quagmire in the Middle East is like its old quagmires in the Middle East. It is based, as were the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, on a gross misreading of our adversaries, a catastrophic failure to understand the limits of imperial power and no discernable strategy. It\u00a0swells<\/a>\u00a0the profits of the war industry, wasting\u00a0billions<\/a>\u00a0of public funds,\u00a0alienates<\/a>\u00a0our allies and erodes the global power and prestige of the United States.<\/p>\n Dying empires<\/a>, governed by the corrupt and the incompetent, are blinded by militarism and hubris. They are unable to read the world around them. They stumble into self-defeating cul-de-sacs \u2014 as we did in Iraq, Afghanistan and earlier in Vietnam \u2014 where military adventurism accelerates self-inflicted wounds.<\/p>\n The war on Iran is one more chapter in our precipitous and ultimately fatal decline.<\/p>\n Tehran\u2019s 10-point temporary ceasefire\u00a0proposal<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 brokered by Pakistani mediators and presented to the U.S. 40 days after war against Iran had begun \u2014 is tantamount to surrender terms. It demands the end of U.S. and Israeli attacks, including in Lebanon. It calls for the removal of U.S. military bases and installations from the region. It solidifies Iran\u2019s control over the Strait of Hormuz. It refuses to abandon uranium enrichment. It calls for the end to sanctions and termination of anti-Iranian resolutions by the United Nations Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency. It also requires release of frozen assets \u2014\u00a0estimated<\/a>\u00a0at $100 billion \u2014 and reparations for the U.S. and Israeli attacks.<\/p>\n This is too bitter a humiliation for the U.S. and Israel to accept.<\/p>\n Within hours of the Iranian proposal, Israel \u2014 determined to sabotage any\u00a0agreement<\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0launched<\/a>\u00a0a devastating air attack against Lebanon. The attack, which was carried out over 10 minutes, included the bombing of central Beirut. It involved 50 fighter jets and 108 airstrikes that dropped around 160 bombs,\u00a0killing<\/a>\u00a0350 people and wounding 1,000 others. The lightning and unprovoked massacre, known as \u201cBlack Wednesday,\u201d is a potent reminder that Israel has no intention of allowing this war to end. With the U.S. not ready to admit defeat, and Israel\u2019s bloodlust, we are in for a very rough ride.<\/p>\n Iran submitted an\u00a0updated<\/a>\u00a0proposal last week, which Trump\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0is \u201ctotally unacceptable.\u201d<\/p>\n But Iran, with its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, can afford to wait. The longer it maintains its blockade over shipping \u2014\u00a0roughly<\/a>\u00a020 percent of the world\u2019s oil and liquified natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 the more global economic pain it inflicts.<\/p>\n There is no good outcome for the U.S.<\/p>\n The Trump administration\u2019s obstinacy and Israel\u2019s\u00a0determination<\/a>\u00a0to resume attacks on Iran ensures that the global economy will barrel towards a global depression.<\/p>\n The World Bank\u00a0projects<\/a>\u00a0a 31 percent increase in the cost of nitrogen fertilizers which are produced in the Gulf and transit through the Strait of Hormuz this year if the war continues. This ensures a huge rise in food costs.<\/p>\n Shortages are already shutting down global manufacturing and production. The fragile, interdependent global supply chains are seizing up.<\/p>\n This economic ecosystem, as Iran has shown, is easy to destroy. It will be very hard to piece back together.<\/p>\n Iran suffered\u00a0devastating<\/a>\u00a0blows to its civilian infrastructure and economy \u2014 including\u00a0residential areas<\/a>,\u00a0schools<\/a>,\u00a0health centers<\/a>,\u00a0police stations<\/a>,\u00a0churches and synagogues<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0desalinization plants<\/a>,\u00a0steel<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0pharmaceutical facilities<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 as well as its military assets, including parts of its\u00a0navy<\/a>,\u00a0air force<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0missile launch<\/a>\u00a0capabilities. It endured \u201cdecapitation strikes\u201d against its\u00a0senior political and military<\/a>\u00a0leaders<\/a>\u00a0at the start of the war, which included the assassinations of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the secretary of Iran\u2019s Defence Council, Ali Shamkhani, and the chief of staff of Iran\u2019s armed forces, Abdolrahim Mousavi, among others.<\/p>\n None of the U.S. and Israeli\u00a0objectives,<\/a>\u00a0however, have been met.<\/p>\n The new Iranian leadership \u2014 centered around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) \u2014 is more\u00a0defiant<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0intransigent<\/a>\u00a0than the previous leadership.<\/p>\n Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz. It charges\u00a0as much as<\/a>\u00a0$2 million for every oil tanker passing through it. These tariffs \u2014 which Iran introduced as part of its demand for war\u00a0reparations<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 must be paid in\u00a0Chinese currency<\/a>, part of an attempt by Iran, China and Russia to\u00a0break<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0hegemony<\/a>\u00a0of the U.S. dollar. Iran also retains\u00a0significant<\/a>\u00a0missile and drone stockpiles and enriched uranium, which it has\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0it will increase to 90 percent purity if attacked again.<\/p>\n Iran is the clear winner of Operation Epic Fury. Trump is the clear loser. The dilemma is that Trump\u2019s penchant for inventing his own reality means he is unlikely to acknowledge his blunder and negotiate a way out of the debacle he created.<\/p>\n Trump, without Congressional approval, has already squandered at least $29\u00a0billion<\/a>\u00a0on the war\u00a0according to<\/a>\u00a0the Pentagon, although\u00a0analysis<\/a>\u00a0by Stephen Semler of Popular Information places the figure closer to $72 billion.<\/p>\n The human cost is already high. U.S. and Israeli strikes have killed more than 3,300 Iranian civilians,\u00a0including<\/a>\u00a0at least 221 children. Over three million Iranians have been\u00a0displaced<\/a>,\u00a0along with<\/a>\u00a0over one million Lebanese from Israel\u2019s ongoing\u00a0bombardment<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0ethnic cleansing<\/a>\u00a0of southern Lebanon. There are, at the same time, over two million\u00a0displaced<\/a>\u00a0Palestinians from the genocide in Gaza and another\u00a01,100 killed<\/a>\u00a0and 40,000\u00a0displaced<\/a>\u00a0Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.<\/p>\n Fuel shortages and supply disruptions are crippling countries in Asia, with Thailand\u00a0facing<\/a>\u00a0panic buying and rationing at some petrol stations. Vietnam and South Korea are scrambling to secure alternative crude and fuel supplies. Japan, which relies on the Persian Gulf for roughly 95 percent of its crude oil imports, has had to\u00a0dip<\/a>\u00a0twice into its strategic reserves since the war started in February.<\/p>\n The rise in price of liquefied petroleum means cooking fuel prices have\u00a0increased<\/a>\u00a0by about seven percent for domestic use in India, but have\u00a0skyrocketed<\/a>\u00a0by around 76 percent in the commercial sector. This has resulted in\u00a0production cuts and job losses<\/a>\u00a0in the garment and textile sector in India, as well as in Bangladesh and Cambodia.<\/p>\n There are shortages of\u00a0helium<\/a>,\u00a0aluminum<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0naphtha<\/a>, also transited through the Strait of Hormuz. These shortages have seen production declines, including among\u00a0microchip manufacturers<\/a>,\u00a0construction firms<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0plastic packaging<\/a>\u00a0sector.\u00a0Steel mills<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0India<\/a>\u00a0and automakers in\u00a0Japan<\/a>\u00a0have cut production. Tens of thousands of workers across the globe have already lost their jobs.<\/p>\n Asian airlines, along with many on the European continent \u2014 including those from Germany, Turkey and Greece \u2014 are\u00a0loading<\/a>\u00a0extra fuel at their airports, cutting flights and raising surcharges with the doubling of the price of jet fuel. The United Arab Emirates \u2014 one of the world\u2019s richest states with sovereign wealth funds that total more than $2 trillion \u2014 has asked the U.S. for a \u201cWartime Financial Lifeline\u201d in the wake of missile-damaged gas fields and a halt to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,\u00a0according to<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n Millions of people, especially in Asia and Africa, are at risk of falling into dire poverty because of the war,\u00a0according to<\/a>\u00a0the United Nations Development Program.<\/p>\n The U.S., which is a net exporter of oil and natural gas, has been relatively insulated from the global shock, although gasoline prices have\u00a0risen<\/a>\u00a0by around 40 percent to\u00a0more than<\/a>\u00a0$4.50 a gallon. The average U.S. diesel price has\u00a0increased<\/a>\u00a0by nearly 50 percent, surpassing $5.60 a gallon. But it is only a matter of time before the breakdown of the global economy ravages the U.S.<\/p>\n The Trump administration is pushing us towards a global depression with all of the social and political instability that comes with a catastrophic financial crisis.<\/p>\n Trump is desperate. He spews out expletive-laden threats to Iran on social media,\u00a0writing<\/a>\u00a0\u201cOpen the Fuckin\u2019 Strait [of Hormuz], you crazy bastards.\u201d He also posts Artificial Intelligence generated images showing the U.S. military obliterating the Iranian military. He has\u00a0threatened<\/a>\u00a0to bomb Iranians \u201cback to the stone age where they belong,\u201d and lambasts his critics as traitors:<\/p>\n \u201cWhen the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it\u2019s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement.\u201d He\u00a0declared<\/a>\u00a0on Truth Social, \u201cThey are aiding and abetting the enemy!\u201d<\/p>\n This screed was\u00a0followed<\/a>\u00a0by an image of a map with Venezuela overlaid with the U.S. flag. The caption read: \u201c51st State.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Qqk_!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F423c0b67-f131-4bc1-b807-c207d5bb234d_1180x1010.png)
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