{"id":2865,"date":"2024-10-26T15:48:04","date_gmt":"2024-10-26T15:48:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=2865"},"modified":"2024-10-26T15:49:44","modified_gmt":"2024-10-26T15:49:44","slug":"israel-launches-pathetic-attack-on-iran-after-realising-it-cant-win-a-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=2865","title":{"rendered":"Israel launches pathetic attack on Iran after realising it can’t win a war"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/h3>\n
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Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It very much looks like this was an off-ramp<\/h3>\n

After weeks of dithering, Israel finally launched its \u201cretaliatory strike\u201d on Iran, which no sensible person could call a \u201cretaliation\u201d. If only our media was run by sensible people who are capable of remembering the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria, and the assassination of Haniyeh in Iran, and the assassination of an Iranian official in Lebanon\u2026<\/p>\n

From what we can gather, Israel\u2019s attack was about as effective as Hamas launching fire crackers over the Israeli border fence. In other words, not very\u2026<\/p>\n

It looks like Israel was deceived by Iranian decoys, and that Iran\u2019s air defences held up well, but it also appears this was not a serious attempt at escalation. Israel released a weird statement which included the\u00a0following sentence<\/a>: \u201cthe IDF struck air-to-surface missile arrays and additional Iranian capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel\u2019s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s such a weird justification, arguing that Iran should not have sovereignty over its own territory, that Israel should be allowed to breach Iran\u2019s airspace whenever it likes, but whatever, it looks like the damage was minimal and this was all theatre. I would be tempted to call the response \u201csensible\u201d were it not for Israel\u2019s barbaric behaviour over the last year.<\/p>\n

Despite the lameness of the attack, Israeli media has tried to sell it as a success, and honestly, just let them get on with it. If pretending this was a humiliating defeat for Iran is how you sell de-escalation to the Israeli public, I\u2019m all for it. Whatever saves lives\u2026<\/p>\n

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Sadly, it seems the propaganda is not working and Israelis are unimpressed. They feel their leaders have been intimidated into backing down, and the\u00a0social media response<\/a>\u00a0has been one of bemusement. It\u2019s dawning Israel is not the sole superpower in the region and wars are much harder to fight when your targets aren\u2019t schools and hospitals.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m old enough to remember when Israelis considered it a massive failure if your attack didn\u2019t result in damage to civilian infrastructure. Well, life is going on as normal in Iran, and civilians, who\u2019ve been asked if they feel afraid, have\u00a0simply laughed<\/a>. Contrast this to Israel where the north has been evacuated, and everyone in the south keeps fleeing to shelters, and it really looks like the balance of power is shifting.<\/p>\n

The scale of Israel\u2019s attack boiled down to one thing: can Israel count on the support of the US when it\u2019s the aggressor? My guess is someone in the US crunched the numbers and worked out they can\u2019t afford this war. Aside from the inevitable collapse of the US economy, there is the fact US supplies are running low from supporting two wars at once. It seems reality has hit home.<\/p>\n

Netanyahu was so courageous, he\u00a0hid inside a bunker<\/a>\u00a0while Israel\u2019s attack was taking place (it\u2019s only cowardly when Hamas hides underground). It looks like Israel was worried Iran might hit back with unstoppable hypersonic missiles, and given that Netanyahu\u2019s residence was recently\u00a0struck<\/a>\u00a0by a cheap Hezbollah drone, no Israeli official will be feeling safe. Given their brutal pager attack in Lebanon and merciless genocide in Gaza, it\u2019s hard to feel sympathy. Fear is the only language these people understand.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s not forget that Iran said it would react strongly to any response from Israel, even a small one, but now Iran must ask: is it really worth responding? Surely, it makes more sense to take this small hit than to escalate to a war that would inevitably hurt both sides.<\/p>\n

Israel could not hope to defeat Iran without US support; it\u2019s even\u00a0ending<\/a>\u00a0its\u00a0ground offensive\u00a0<\/a>in\u00a0Lebanon<\/a>\u00a0(according to Israel\u2019s\u00a0Kan 11 News<\/a>) because it\u2019s\u00a0losing<\/a>\u00a0so\u00a0badly<\/a>. Israel is, of course, claiming success, but given it has not defeated Hamas after more than a year, it\u2019s hard to see this is anything other than an embarrassing climb down.<\/p>\n

All Israel could do was offer Iran an off-ramp in the form of a limited strike and hope Iran accepts that offer. I think it will, but opinions in Iran differ. Seyed Mohammad Marandi\u00a0posted<\/a>\u00a0on Twitter: \u201cSo now Zionists must wait for Iran’s inevitable response. A very painful strike is coming.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mirandi is an Iranian professor with no ties to the IRGC, but he\u2019s knowledgeable on these matters, so does he know something, or is he playing games? If Iran launches a massive strike on Israel, either they\u2019ve lost their minds or have reason to be confident. Given Israel is a nuclear power, and the US would rush to Israel\u2019s aid, I\u2019m unclear where such confidence would come from.<\/p>\n

NATO has\u00a0stated<\/a>: \u201cIn the event of hostilities involving Iran and Israel, NATO allies will provide unwavering support to Israel,\u201d adding that anyone supporting Iran will be considered an \u201cenemy of the west\u201d.<\/p>\n

One thing we know is both sides have the capability to breach the other\u2019s air defences. While Israel has by far the better air defences and fighter jets, Iran has by far the better missiles. While Israel has the backing of the US, Iran has a far more cost effective military strategy. If Iran launches a rocket that Israel intercepts, that will cost Israel potentially one hundred times more than it will cost Iran. It would be easy for Iran to saturate Israel\u2019s air defences and deal it a huge economic blow.<\/p>\n

While Israel could respond in kind, much of Iran\u2019s military infrastructure is underground, and even trying to take that out would be extremely difficult. This was leading me to fear Israel might go nuts and start launching nukes: something even the US had considered Israel might do, according to a\u00a0leaked document<\/a>. However, the report\u00a0said<\/a>: \u201cWe (US) have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon\u201d. It seems that cooler heads are prevailing\u2026 for now.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s more than likely that Israel will focus on desperately replenishing its arsenal and ensuring its iron dome is fully stocked. Iran will race forward with its nuclear plans, knowing a pre-emptive strike from the lunatics in Israel can\u2019t be ruled out. It will probably focus on moving as much of its inventory underground as possible and bolstering its air defences. It looks like Iran is working on a\u00a0deal with Russia<\/a>\u00a0to do exactly that. Does all this mean we are set for war two or three years from now? Or will both sides finally make the calculation that war is simply too risky and only a diplomatic solution can work? Given that Israel is on a Biblical mission and the military industrial complex depends on endless war, I\u2019m not overly optimistic\u2026<\/p>\n

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Link : https:\/\/www.antiimperialist.news\/p\/israel-launches-pathetic-attack-on?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2321079&post_id=150748254&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=l7odh&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It very much looks like this was an off-ramp After weeks of dithering, Israel finally launched its \u201cretaliatory strike\u201d on Iran, which no sensible person could call a \u201cretaliation\u201d. 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