{"id":5047,"date":"2025-07-07T06:58:08","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T06:58:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=5047"},"modified":"2025-07-07T06:58:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T06:58:08","slug":"beyond-the-bombs-who-really-won-the-12-day-war-between-israel-and-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/natharatmouchrika.net\/home\/?p=5047","title":{"rendered":"Beyond the Bombs: Who Really Won the 12-Day War Between Israel and Iran?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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On June 13, 2025, Tel Aviv launched what many international observers and Iranian officials have described as an unprovoked military strike<\/a>\u00a0on Iran.\u00a0Israeli jets<\/a>\u00a0bombed military and nuclear sites, while Mossad-run sleeper cells carried out sabotage missions against air and missile defense systems from within Iran, and drones smuggled into Tehran were launched against local missile launch bases.<\/p>\n

Dozens\u2014perhaps more\u2014of nuclear scientists and top military commanders were\u00a0murdered<\/a>\u00a0with surgical precision, often in the presence of innocent family members, who were themselves frequently killed. A climate of chaos and uncertainty seemed to engulf everything.<\/p>\n

These early results so exhilarated Israeli officials that they talked a big game on where their operation would lead, making several incendiary claims along the way.\u00a0They boasted<\/a>\u00a0of operating in Iranian airspace without hindrance, invited the U.S. to get\u00a0formally involved<\/a>\u00a0with the \u201celimination\u201d of Tehran\u2019s nuclear weapons program, and\u00a0anonymously briefed<\/a>\u00a0the media that \u201ca multi-faceted misinformation campaign\u201d\u2014in which Donald Trump was an \u201cactive participant\u201d\u2014had been conducted \u201cto convince Iran that a strike on its nuclear facilities was not imminent.\u201d<\/p>\n

Internationally-wanted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu\u00a0forecast<\/a>\u00a0on June 15 that Israel\u2019s war on Iran \u201ccould certainly\u201d produce regime change, as the government was \u201cvery weak,\u201d and that \u201c80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out.\u201d<\/p>\n

A hard-hitting response to Netanyahu\u2019s premonitions and Tel Aviv\u2019s military strike quickly arrived from Tehran in the form of a wave of missile attacks. Wreaking unprecedented damage on Tel Aviv and Haifa. The impact on Israeli military installations is difficult to assess due to its strict policy of\u00a0internal censorship<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Visibly, though, Iran\u2019s bombardments sent Israelis\u00a0scurrying for shelter<\/a>, while many others\u00a0fled the country<\/a>\u00a0outright. Such was the exodus, from a country that has already suffered\u00a0mass depopulation<\/a>\u00a0since October 7, 2023\u2014the Israeli government has since scrambled to implement\u00a0legally questionable<\/a>\u00a0bans on its citizens leaving.<\/p>\n

By June 19, officials in Tel Aviv had dropped the braggadocio, and Western media were publishing\u00a0explainer guides<\/a>\u00a0to explain why Israel\u2019s\u00a0much-vaunted<\/a>\u00a0Iron Dome air defense system had failed to repel Iranian strikes.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s unmolested battering of Israel\u00a0continued apace<\/a>\u00a0until June 22, when the U.S. officially entered the war. Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz\u00a0were targeted<\/a>, allegedly using heavy-duty B-2 bombers that dropped earth-shattering bunker busters.<\/p>\n

Trump boasted<\/a>\u00a0that Iran\u2019s nuclear program was \u201cobliterated,\u201d and\u00a0Tehran struck<\/a>\u00a0an unmanned U.S. base in Qatar in response. Iran and Israel then traded missile barrages, which inflicted\u00a0significantly greater<\/a>\u00a0damage on the latter, for two more days, before begrudgingly agreeing to a ceasefire.<\/p>\n

So far, the\u00a0ceasefire holds<\/a>. In the meantime, U.S. claims of having damaged, let alone destroyed, Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities have quickly unraveled, as have Israeli allegations that the June 13 strike was an urgent necessity conducted as Iran was on the\u00a0imminent verge<\/a>\u00a0of acquiring nukes.<\/p>\n

As the dust settles, it is becoming increasingly clear that the\u00a0so-called<\/a>\u00a0\u201c12 Day War\u201d was long in the making, and an unmitigated disaster for Tel Aviv and Washington, with wide-ranging ramifications for the region and beyond.<\/p>\n

\u201cNetanyahu wanted to incite regime change in Tehran, while drawing the U.S. into a wider war. He failed on both counts, and now Iran is stronger, its citizens more united with one another, and behind their government,\u201d Ali Abunimah, Electronic Intifada cofounder, tells MintPress News.<\/p>\n

This has enormous implications for West Asia and the world. Israel proved itself more vulnerable than ever. Tehran, while still facing enormous dangers from determined enemies, proved itself far more resilient than its adversaries expected.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2018Burning Through\u2019<\/h3>\n

\u201cMeanwhile, as many Iranian commentators note,\u201d Abunimah says, another deleterious upshot of the fiasco is \u201cWestern-oriented segments of Iranian society have been left disillusioned\u2014even discredited\u2014by Washington\u2019s brazen deceit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bragging about how Trump\u2019s nuclear negotiations were a ruse \u201cmeans not only Iran but many other countries globally will never again trust U.S. diplomacy.\u201d Still, he believes Washington and Tel Aviv\u2019s \u201cefforts to destroy\u201d Iran shouldn\u2019t cease, and could intensify.<\/p>\n

For the time being, Tehran has\u00a0made clear<\/a>\u00a0it will observe the ceasefire and only strike back if it is attacked again. As Abunimah puts it, \u201cSome have criticized Iran for not linking a ceasefire to Israel ending the Gaza genocide.\u201d However, he believes \u201csuch a demand could\u2019ve triggered serious U.S. aggression, rather than the meaningless strikes that happened, and civilians could\u2019ve ended up in the firing line.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tehran has never envisaged direct defeat via a single blow, but wearing Israel down. The Resistance, including Iran, is the weaker side in an asymmetrical war, facing the full might of the U.S.-led Western empire. Ironically, although Israel started this war, it advanced the Resistance\u2019s objective.<\/p>\n

Israel appears weak, unstable, and unsafe, while totally reliant on foreign support in a world where it is more hated than ever after nearly two years of its livestreamed genocide in Gaza.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Tyler Weaver<\/a>, a U.S. military veteran who runs a popular X account publishing military analysis and commentary, echoes Abunimah\u2019s analysis. \u201cIran demonstrated a consistent capability to pierce Israeli missile defenses and damage or destroy Israeli infrastructure and combat systems \u2013 several IDF air defense missile batteries were struck and destroyed,\u201d he observes.<\/p>\n

And while Iran may not have secured an outright victory against its attackers, \u201cIsrael sure lost\u201d the 12-Day War. \u201cThis was their \u2018big show\u2019 against Iran, and its results did not meet the effort expended. The most effective weapon the Israelis had wasn\u2019t their vaunted Air Force, but instead an elaborately constructed attack network inside Iran courtesy of Mossad, which is now gone, and likely cannot be reconstructed.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cInfrastructure can be repaired, weaponry can be replaced, but they\u2019re not going to be able to rebuild anything like that network again,\u201d Weaver warns.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, Israel\u2019s high-risk bid to overpower Iran consumed enormous amounts of munitions and came at great financial expense. A former financial adviser to the IDF chief of staff\u00a0estimates<\/a>\u00a0that just the first 48 hours of Tel Aviv\u2019s botched campaign cost $1.45 billion, with almost $1 billion spent on defensive measures alone. Meanwhile, government economists estimated the daily cost of military operations at $725 million.<\/p>\n

Tel Aviv was\u00a0reportedly running<\/a>\u00a0perilously low on missile interceptors within five days, despite the U.S. having been aware of \u201ccapacity problems\u201d for months prior, and spending intervening months \u201caugmenting Israel\u2019s defenses with systems on the ground, at sea and in the air.\u201d This, in turn, has created \u201cconcern about the U.S. burning through its own interceptors\u201d within the Pentagon. As a\u00a0July 2024 report<\/a>\u00a0by the Department of Defense-funded RAND concluded, Washington cannot replenish its stockpile of those munitions at any pace or scale.<\/p>\n

Haaretz estimates that the civilian and\u00a0economic toll<\/a>\u00a0of the 12-Day War on Israel could reach into the billions of dollars. Thousands of residents have been displaced, with reconstruction costs projected in the hundreds of millions. Most industries were brought to a halt during the conflict, deepening the strain on Tel Aviv\u2019s already\u00a0fragile economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Taken together, Israel\u2019s ability to sustain a longer or more intense confrontation with Iran\u2014militarily or financially\u2014and the U.S. capacity to provide continued support appear increasingly uncertain.<\/p>\n

\u2018Idiotic Decision\u2019<\/h3>\n

Reports suggest Trump was motivated by fears of a drawn-out war and saw military strikes on Iran as the most direct path to a ceasefire. This interpretation is\u00a0greatly reinforced<\/a>\u00a0by a high-ranking Iranian official claiming the White House gave Tehran advance notice of the bombings, insisting they were intended as a \u201cone-off,\u201d opening the door for a \u201csymbolic\u201d Iranian counterattack, and cessation of hostilities.<\/p>\n

Media reports\u00a0suggest<\/a>\u00a0that the strikes were part of a broader effort by the President to de-escalate the conflict by offering a negotiated off-ramp for all parties involved. Despite these disclosures, Trump has repeatedly\u00a0avowed<\/a>\u00a0in his typically brash style that the June 22 attack on Iran was decisive, and \u201cone of the most successful military strikes in history.\u201d<\/p>\n

The New York Times later\u00a0cited<\/a>\u00a0a senior U.S. official who said Iran\u2019s nuclear sites were not destroyed but targeted in a way that temporarily took them \u201coff the table,\u201d contradicting the president\u2019s more emphatic characterization.<\/p>\n

Even that more modest assessment was further challenged on June 25, when CNN\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0on the findings of a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency analysis. The report concluded that U.S. strikes on Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz had\u00a0not<\/em>\u00a0destroyed the core components of Iran\u2019s nuclear program and had likely only delayed it by months. These conclusions were echoed by multiple informed sources, who noted that Iran\u2019s stockpile of enriched uranium had been relocated prior to the attack, and that the facilities\u2019 centrifuges remained largely intact.<\/p>\n

Weaver, who has studied photo and video evidence of the 12-Day War extensively, concurs \u201cthere\u2019s little indication\u201d the Iranian nuclear sites were \u201cmeaningfully damaged.\u201d What can be detected from\u00a0satellite imagery<\/a>\u00a0on the ground \u201cis simply inconsistent with the use of earthquake bombs as claimed by Trump and the Pentagon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Weaver points to several inconsistencies in mainstream reporting and White House statements regarding both the execution and outcomes of the attack. He notes that the strike \u201cpassed entirely under the radar of the usual nightly exchange of fire between Iran and Israel,\u201d and was not acknowledged by either side until Trump announced it.<\/p>\n

For the official account to hold, he argues, B-2 bombers\u2014aircraft the U.S. had previously avoided using in Yemen\u2014would have had to penetrate deep into Iranian territory, strike heavily fortified sites with gravity bombs, and return across hundreds of miles of monitored airspace without being detected, all while Iran\u2019s air defense systems remained operational.<\/p>\n

I think Trump tried to rescue Netanyahu from the consequences of his idiotic decision to start a war with Iran he manifestly wasn\u2019t capable of finishing, and do so in a manner the Iranians weren\u2019t going to be provoked into responding to in a major way. As an American taxpayer and former DoD employee, I would hope this wasn\u2019t the most impressive attack the U.S. military could put together on a week\u2019s notice, and it reflects deliberate restraint rather than a lack of capability.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Despite extensive planning reportedly\u00a0dating back<\/a>\u00a0to the Biden administration, including war-game scenarios focused on Iran\u2019s nuclear program, analysts have questioned the limited impact of Israel\u2019s strike. Furthermore, it has\u00a0been revealed<\/a>\u00a0that senior Israeli officials had been preparing for the June 13 attack since March, and sought to strike before Iran \u201crebuilt its air defenses by the latter half of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Polite Fiction\u2019<\/h3>\n

CNN\u2019s report on the leaked DIA assessment was quickly met with coordinated responses from across the U.S. government disputing its conclusions.<\/p>\n

First, a\u00a0dedicated article<\/a>\u00a0was published on the White House website, \u201cIran\u2019s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated \u2014 and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News.\u201d The article collated quotes from numerous high-ranking administration officials, including the President, and Israeli government and military apparatchiks, testifying to the attack\u2019s triumph. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fulminated, \u201cAnyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.\u201d<\/p>\n

Simultaneously, CIA Director\u00a0John Ratcliffe<\/a>\u00a0and Director of National Intelligence\u00a0Tulsi Gabbard<\/a>\u00a0separately issued statements declaring \u201cnew intelligence\u201d indicated Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities had in fact been \u201cdestroyed\u201d by U.S. airstrikes. Neither provided any evidence to support this bold conclusion. Later that day,\u00a0Politico revealed<\/a>\u00a0that the aggressive flurry of disavowal was a determined \u201cblitz\u201d by the administration, \u201cto counter media reports\u2026the strikes had not significantly set back Iran\u2019s nuclear program.\u201d<\/p>\n

The DIA leak reportedly provoked an angry response from Trump, leading to federal investigations into the breach. Like many administrations, the White House and U.S. agencies have typically resisted admitting to failures in military operations. Nonetheless, the determination of so many officials to push back against any suggestions that the strike wasn\u2019t a historically ruinous cataclysm could point to a different motive than covering for Trump, or being forced to admit that Washington\u2019s once-vaunted military machine isn\u2019t what it once was.<\/p>\n

The assertion that Iran\u2019s nuclear program has been eliminated offers a convenient rationale for ending discussions that, even before the conflict, had reached an impasse and now appear permanently derailed. In the wake of Tel Aviv\u2019s strike, Iran\u00a0canceled<\/a>\u00a0nuclear talks with the U.S. that had been scheduled for June 21 in Oman, citing what it called Israel\u2019s \u201cbarbarous\u201d actions, backed by Washington, as rendering the summit \u201cmeaningless.\u201d<\/p>\n

If, as some analysts have suggested, the negotiations were never intended to succeed and successive U.S. administrations were aware of Israel\u2019s plans in advance, then Tehran has little reason to resume talks. In addition, Iranian officials have stated that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors will no longer be permitted entry to nuclear sites on Iranian soil.<\/p>\n

On June 12, Press TV\u00a0published documents<\/a>\u00a0exposing how the Association previously provided Israeli intelligence with the names of several Iranian nuclear scientists who were subsequently assassinated, and its chief, Rafael Grossi, enjoys a close, clandestine relationship with Israeli officials.<\/p>\n

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