• The nature of the killings of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah has ensured a retaliatory response; while the timing and form of that retaliation are not yet clear, it will likely involve all of the factions of the “Axis of Resistance.”

• The US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents, meaning Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides.

The assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr on July 30, immediately followed by the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah the next day, was a double and humiliating blow to Iran and the “Axis of Resistance.” The fact that the two assassinations took place in Hezbollah’s stronghold and the Iranian capital, respectively, ensured a retaliatory response from both Tehran and Hezbollah. Public statements by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to that effect leave no room for negotiations with either on the possibility of standing down.

We can only speculate about the timing and form of their retaliation. The day after Haniyah’s assassination, the leaders of the resistance axis, who were in Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, met to decide on the response. The fact that it was an Axis of Resistance meeting implies that the retaliatory response will most likely involve all of its factions.

Hassan Nasrallah said in his Aug. 1 speech that the Hezbollah-Israel conflict has entered a new stage. By that he meant the rules that have anchored Hezbollah’s conduct of the cross-border war with Israel, including non-targeting of major cities and of civilian areas, have been upended. Their retaliatory response to Shukr’s assassination will follow the new rules.

The US administration has proven unwilling and unable to rein in its Israeli ally. Following the two assassinations, they were quick to declare they had no role in Shukr’s killing and were neither aware of nor involved in Haniyah’s. The takeaway inside the Iran-led resistance axis from such statements is that they can no longer rely on Washington to prevent a regional war.

To-date, the Axis of Resistance has been uninterested in launching such a war. Iran is in the midst of a succession crisis, while Hezbollah and Lebanon are dealing with a massive economic crisis. Neither wants to direct international public interest and support away from the Palestinians, nor do they want to get into a war with the US. However, both know the Biden administration is keen on preventing an all-out regional war. They are also aware of the limited maneuvering room of an administration that is leaving office in five months. It can neither offer incentives for Iran and its proxies to stand down nor does it seem capable of preventing Israeli escalatory behavior.

After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.

Link : https://www.mei.edu/blog/monday-briefing-middle-east-closest-it-has-ever-been-all-out-war