Policy

What awaits us ?

By Afaf Aniba

The aggression against Iran is not only a service to the plan of the Sons of Zion, but also a means of consolidating Washington’s dominance over fossil-fuel resources across the world in order to maintain its supremacy in the face of China and the BRICS countries, and to support its military-industrial complex.

Washington attaches great importance to maritime chokepoints, from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb, since guaranteeing international navigation is among America’s economic priorities. Here I recall what President Barack Obama wrote in the first volume of his memoir A Promised Land; during his first meetings with world leaders, he noted their reliance on American leadership in many global issues.

This orientation has served—and continues to serve—the agenda of every American president. Excessive reliance on Washington has reduced the ability of rising powers to take matters into their own hands and challenge the dominance of Washington and the Sons of Zion.

The current aggression against Iran has revealed America’s ambitions. Internal divisions within the United States are likely to intensify, especially during the period of the upcoming midterm legislative elections in November—the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. We will see greater caution from many states, and there will likely be no noticeable improvement in the international economic crisis.

Many countries, particularly poor and underdeveloped ones, will see their financial conditions deteriorate further. Even the Persian Gulf states—though already experiencing difficulties today—will be compelled to reassess their geopolitical calculations.

The world will not remain as it is now. New alliances will emerge, and China—the leading power after the United States—will calibrate its military capabilities in response to the growing power of the U.S. military. The tendency to resolve disputes and conflicts by force will also increase.

As for the return of negotiations between Tehran and Washington, it remains doubtful.

Useful information*

1. Strategic oil chokepoints*

* Around 20–21 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, representing roughly **20% of global oil trade.
* About 6–7 million barrels per day pass through the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait.
* Any disruption to these two routes could affectmore than a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

2. Global reliance on U.S. maritime security*

* The United States spends **more than $880 billion annually on defense (2024), the largest military budget in the world.
* It operates 11 aircraft carriers, while China currently has 3.
* The U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain to secure the Gulf region.

3. *Role of the military-industrial complex

* The five largest U.S. defense companies—such as Lockheed Martin and RTX Corporation—generate over $200 billion in defense revenues annually.
* Wars and geopolitical crises often increase global demand for American weapons.

4. *China’s rise and the international balance

* China’s military spending is estimated at $290–300 billion annually.
* China is the largest oil importer in the world (about 11 million barrels per day), making stability in the Gulf a strategic necessity for China.

5. *Impact of crises on the global economy

* A large-scale conflict in the Gulf could push oil prices to $100–150 per barrel, according to estimates by international energy institutions.
* Poor energy-importing countries would be the most affected, due to inflation and rising transportation costs.

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